Friday, October 21, 2016

Avoiding A Robot Revolution: How We Can Ensure Our AI Are Safe


    As artificial intelligence improves, machines will soon be equipped with intellectual and practical capabilities that surpass the smartest humans. But not only will machines be more capable than people, they will also be able to make themselves better. That is, these machines will understand their own design and how to improve it – or they could create entirely new machines that are even more capable.
The human creators of AIs must be able to trust these machines to remain safe and beneficial even as they self-improve and adapt to the real world.

Recursive Self-Improvement

    This idea of an autonomous agent making increasingly better modifications to its own code is called recursive self-improvement. Through recursive self-improvement, a machine can adapt to new circumstances and learn how to deal with new situations.
    To a certain extent, the human brain does this as well. As a person develops and repeats new habits, connections in their brains can change. The connections grow stronger and more effective over time, making the new, desired action easier to perform (e.g. changing one’s diet or learning a new language). In machines though, this ability to self-improve is much more drastic.
    An AI agent can process information much faster than a human, and if it does not properly understand how its actions impact people, then its self-modifications could quickly fall out of line with human values.
    For Bas Steunebrink, a researcher at the Swiss AI lab IDSIA, solving this problem is a crucial step toward achieving safe and beneficial AI.

Building AI in a Complex World

    Because the world is so complex, many researchers begin AI projects by developing AI in carefully controlled environments. Then they create mathematical proofs that can assure them that the AI will achieve success in this specified space.
But Steunebrink worries that this approach puts too much responsibility on the designers and too much faith in the proof, especially when dealing with machines that can learn through recursive self-improvement. He explains, “We cannot accurately describe the environment in all its complexity; we cannot foresee what environments the agent will find itself in in the future; and an agent will not have enough resources (energy, time, inputs) to do the optimal thing.”
    If the machine encounters an unforeseen circumstance, then that proof the designer relied on in the controlled environment may not apply. Says Steunebrink, “We have no assurance about the safe behavior of the [AI].”

Experience-based Artificial Intelligence

    Instead, Steunebrink uses an approach called EXPAI (experience-based artificial intelligence). EXPAI are “self-improving systems that make tentative, additive, reversible, very fine-grained modifications, without prior self-reasoning; instead, self-modifications are tested over time against experiential evidences and slowly phased in when vindicated, or dismissed when falsified.”
    Instead of trusting only a mathematical proof, researchers can ensure that the AI develops safe and benevolent behaviors by teaching and testing the machine in complex, unforeseen environments that challenge its function and goals.
    With EXPAI, AI machines will learn from interactive experience, and therefore monitoring their growth period is crucial. As Steunebrink posits, the focus shifts from asking, “What is the behavior of an agent that is very intelligent and capable of self-modification, and how do we control it?” to asking, “How do we grow an agent from baby beginnings such that it gains both robust understanding and proper values?”
    Consider how children grow and learn to navigate the world independently. If provided with a stable and healthy childhood, children learn to adopt values and understand their relation to the external world through trial and error, and by examples. Childhood is a time of growth and learning, of making mistakes, of building on success – all to help prepare the child to grow into a competent adult who can navigate unforeseen circumstances.
    Steunebrink believes that researchers can ensure safe AI through a similar, gradual process of experience-based learning. In an architectural blueprint developed by Steunebrink and his colleagues, the AI is constructed “starting from only a small amount of designer-specific code – a seed.” Like a child, the beginnings of the machine will be less competent and less intelligent, but it will self-improve over time, as it learns from teachers and real-world experience.
    As Steunebrink’s approach focuses on the growth period of an autonomous agent, the teachers, not the programmers, are most responsible for creating a robust and benevolent AI. Meanwhile, the developmental stage gives researchers time to observe and correct an AI’s behavior in a controlled setting where the stakes are still low.

The Future of EXPAI

    Steunebrink and his colleagues are currently creating what he describes as a “pedagogy to determine what kind of things to teach to agents and in what order, how to test what the agents understand from being taught, and, depending on the results of such tests, decide whether we can proceed to the next steps of teaching or whether we should reteach the agent or go back to the drawing board.”
    A major issue Steunebrink faces is that his method of experience-based learning diverges from the most popular methods for improving AI. Instead of doing the intellectual work of crafting a proof-backed optimal learning algorithm on a computer, EXPAI requires extensive in-person work with the machine to teach it like a child.
    Creating safe artificial intelligence might prove to be more a process of teaching and growth rather than a function of creating the perfect mathematical proof. While such a shift in responsibility may be more time-consuming, it could also help establish a far more comprehensive understanding of an AI before it is released into the real world.
    Steunebrink explains, “A lot of work remains to move beyond the agent implementation level, towards developing the teaching and testing methodologies that enable us to grow an agent’s understanding of ethical values, and to ensure that the agent is compelled to protect and adhere to them.”
    The process is daunting, he admits, “but it is not as daunting as the consequences of getting AI safety wrong.”

Researchers: AI Could Take Over Much More Than Blue Collar Jobs

 

Bot Dependence

    Over the past few decades, smart machines and robots have taken on numerous manual labor jobs, and developments are showing no signs of stopping. Where does this leave the future of the work force? Surely only blue collar jobs are at risk, right?
In a new study, father-and-son Richard and Daniel Susskind, information technology researchers, sought to debunk the standing belief that some human experts—like doctors, lawyers, and accountants—cannot be replaced by robots equipped with artificial intelligence (AI). The belief is maintained by the claim that there’s just some things too tricky for robots, like subjective judgement, creativity, and empathy.
   The researchers asserted, however, that AI does have a role in these positions, considering there’s already a big dependence on tech-based services. They noted that the monthly hits on Web MD network (a collection of health sites) outnumber the visits to all doctors in the US. Trade sites even have algorithms that can settle legal disputes. eBay used their “online dispute resolution” to solve 60 million disagreements instead of lawyer consultations, a number three times the annual lawsuits filed in the US. Just this year, the AI lawyer “Ross” was employed by a firm for its bankruptcy practice. All these examples may be indicative of the shift in professional services.

Better Than All of Us?

    The authors deem that the view that AI cannot replace human roles, because they cannot be creative or empathetic as sentient humans, is a big fallacy. According to the researchers:
    The error here is not recognizing that human professionals are already being outgunned by a combination of brute processing power, big data, and remarkable algorithms. These systems do not replicate human reasoning and thinking. When systems beat the best humans at difficult games, when they predict the likely decisions of courts more accurately than lawyers, or when the probable outcomes of epidemics can be better gauged on the strength of past medical data than on medical science, we are witnessing the work of high-performing, unthinking machines.
   It’s true that most of us would turn first to the internet to look for a diagnosis and treatment when we’re a bit ill—the doctor could come later. Could our collective bot-trusting character, coupled with ever-speeding technological advancement, lead to a future work force completely run by AI? The Susskinds believe we’re on our way.

Microsoft’s Speech Recognition Tech Is Officially as Accurate as Humans

  

“Human parity” achieved

     A study published last Monday, heralded as an historic achievement by Microsoft, details a new speech recognition technology that’s able to transcribe conversational speech as well as humans — or at least, as best as professional human transcriptionists (which is better than most humans).
The technology scored a word error rate (WER) of 5.9%, which was lower than the 6.3% WER reported just last month. “[I]t’s the lowest ever recorded against the industry standard Switchboard speech recognition task,” Microsoft reports. The rate is the same as (or even lower than) the human professional transcriptionists who transcribed the same conversation.
“We’ve reached human parity,” says Xuedong Huang, Microsoft’s chief speech scientist. The new technology uses neural language models that allow for more efficient generalization by grouping similar words together.
The achievement comes decades after speech pattern recognition was first studied in the 1970s. With Google’s DeepMind making waves in speech and image recognition (and speaking like humans do), the technology is Microsoft’s timely contribution to the fast-paced artificial intelligence (AI) research and development.
The achievement was unlocked using the Computational Network Toolkit, Microsoft’s homegrown system for deep learning.

Next step: Understanding

    The applications for the new technology are bound to improve user experience for Microsoft’s personal voice assistant for Windows and Xbox One. “This will make Cortana more powerful, making a truly intelligent assistant possible,” says an excited Harry Shum, the executive vice president heading the Microsoft Artificial Intelligence and Research group. Of course, it will also develop better speech-to-text transcription software.
    Microsoft clarifies, however, that parity does not mean perfection. The computer did not recognize every word clearly, which is something not even humans could do perfectly (nor can Siri or other existing voice assistants).
Impressive as it is, there remains room for improvement. The next goal: making computers understand human conversation. “The next frontier is to move from recognition to understanding,” says Geoffrey Zweig, Speech & Dialog research group manager.